Mobile spend up 11x Over Next 5 Years – or will it be a lot more? – my take

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The smart people at Forrester reckon that there’s a big increase in European mobile spending in the next 5 years, from 1.7bn Euros to 19.2bn. That will be 6.8% of total online sales (very similar to US).

One does hate to disagree. But my gut is that in 5 years the rate of shift to mobile for all purposes will be devastating. We shall stop seeing “mobile” as the oddity, with mobile “phones” blending with tablets, and tablets of various kinds taking over from the desktop/laptop as the default device for consumer and much enterprise use.

So the numbers are interesting. But I suspect in 5 years the totals will be several times as high. And rising.

 

 

Europeans to Increase Mobile Spending 11x Over Next 5 Years [STUDY].

Why Doesn’t Social Understand Social?

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Don’t you think it’s odd? Not simply that Google and Facebook and other big digital brands seem to be at least as clutzy in their handling of user relationships as corporate survivals from the 19th century. But that it doesn’t seem to worry them.

I’m looking for two things. First is a no-brainer. Second, OK, for extra credit.

1. Excellence in stakeholder relations, exploring leading-edge models employing social to bring corporate values into alignment with emerging markets/users, and all that follows. That is, social companies, um, using social to engage.

2. Excellence in innovative approaches to formal governance approaches (which as I have argued elsewhere could extend to financing) that model social.

Who are the contenders? Anyone leading the way out there with good/innovative practice?

When and How if you’re Marketing with Twitter

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If you missed this report a week or so ago, it’s worth a visit. A Salesforce unit looked at around 300 Twitter accounts managed for major brands. Important to note that, since while many of us use Twitter to promote our businesses, this effort seems to have looked at more overtly promotional tweeting (the kind I never see as I don’t follow brands!).

There are straightforward lessons about keeping under 100 characters, including links, making sure your links work (sigh); and interesting remarks on when best to tweet – at busy times, and especially at weekends (when it seems most major brands don’t bother much).

Grist to the mill of those of us who have been repeating that major companies aren’t serious about social, and the tips on timing and length are helpful even if they are not of universal application (so if you are selling sleeping pills . . .). And the approach some of us taking to mingling professional content with quips, snarks, and general-purpose observations (not to mention cat pics); and who tweet far more than is here recommended; is not really in view.

Back to a point I keep making. This really is early days – in digital in general, in social in particular, and in Twitter especially, which is the key social medium. I suspect I shall return to these points soon . . . .

WHY TWITTER MATTERS: Tomorrow’s Knowledge Network

http://t.co/GBi0mbyp 

Sorry, Marketers, You’re Doing Twitter Wrong [REPORT].

The Two Most Stunning Facts about American Business

Mississippi | Missouri

No hires from west of the Mississippi! (Photo credit: Kevin Saff)

Serious question: Is there anyone out there in the Fortune 500 who actually wants to make money?

Because mainstream American business is deliberately ignoring the two key drivers of value creation – with a remarkable degree of consistency. Companies vary, but not by that much, which is why the competitive advantage implications of both should be causing CEOs (and investors) nights of sweaty, nightmarish sleeplessness or first-mover overtime.

1. As I keep noting, every survey that reports on the number of women in senior positions tells us something ridiculous. Not, primarily, unfair (though of course it is unfair). Ridiculous. Whatever they may say, corporate leaders have taken a decision to ignore 50% of the talent pool.

Think about it. No-one with brown eyes. No-one from west of the Mississippi. Dog-lovers, fine; no-one with a cat. I know, it’s complicated. But when you get paid a whole pile of moolah, you can expect zero sympathy from me if things that are complicated prove to be beyond you. Get it fixed, or get out.

We know the national numbers. Men make up 84% of corporate officers, and 86.5% of executives. To focus more narrowly, look at the latest numbers (referenced below) from the state of MA: 41 out of the 100 largest companies by revenue have no women on their boards; 52 have no women executives. No-one with brown eyes. No-one from west of the Mississippi. No-one with a cat. It is frankly hard to see how in these circumstances officers and board members can claim to be exercising their fiduciary responsibility. At a time when the pressures on U.S. business are as bad as they have ever been, nearly half the talent pool is being ignored. I feel like I should be writing this for The Onion.

I think it’s unfortunate that this has been branded as an issue about fairness, like minority representation. Because it is quite different. It is something investors, were they thinking straight, would understand. Something boards would understand. It’s about value and competitive advantage. Get it?

There’s more to be said. I’ve argued that many women are in general better suited than many men to the flexible thinking, agility, relational management, and personal shape of C21 business. There’s actually a bonus in brown-eyed, western, cat-loving hires.

2. The second stunning fact is recent, obvious, dramatic, and at least as hopelessly out of focus as the first. It’s “social.” We keep talking about it. The posts linked below give some telling numbers that drive home the point. Not one of our major corporations has grasped the strategic significance of social media and social customer engagement. Some have responded more seriously than others. A few CEOs have set a lead. But only a handful of top CIOs are personally engaged in that combo of tech and human interface which will define both the relation of corporation and customer (B2B or B2C) in this generation and the corporation’s own capacity for agile, responsive change. It’s as big as that.

So, were I to be asked, I’d suggest the CEO snap up the top 10 social gurus on the planet and build a unit that engaged equally with CIO, CMO, every customer-facing unit, product development, and strategy. With the authority of his (sigh, yes, likely, his) office. For starters. Then next week, something else.

Now, guess what? Anyone seriously think that with women occupying around half the board and executive positions the revolutionary impact of social would be ignored? Anyone seriously think that if and when social is taken proportionately seriously, and customer values demand alignment with those of the company, the asinine male-dominated corporate culture that is well-nigh universal in U.S. business will survive?

Point is, the misalignment of society and corporate governance culture will find its most ready corrective in the revolutionary impact of social in permeating the organizational boundary and enabling market-driven pressures to reshape the business enterprise. It’s all under way. Who’s interested enough in the bottom line to jump ahead?

 

Customer Service and those who don’t get it: https://futureofbiz.org/2012/07/06/the-social-revolution-customer-service-and-those-who-dont-get-it/

How to Become a Social Business

82% of Moms of under-18s On Social Networks

Tech and Corporate Culture: #social #DC #Gov2.0

The business case for investing in women – Boston Business Journal.

via The Two Most Stunning Facts about American Business.

via The Two Most Stunning Facts about American Business.

via The Two Most Stunning Facts about American Business.

via The Two Most Stunning Facts about American Business.

The Social Revolution: Customer Service and those who don’t get it

Gordon Moore on a fishing trip

Gordon Moore on a fishing trip (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The glacially slow capacity of major companies to adjust themselves to the new world order of social media is going to cost them dear. Here’s a handy infographic to stick under the nose of your CIO/CMO/CEO. If you dare.

Seems a full 58% of Twitter users who have tweeted about bad customer experience have never had a response. Seems also that it costs, on average, three times as much to get a new customer as it does to retain an old one (I know, that varies enormously by industry; key thing to remember is that the impact is cumulative . . . an exponential factor that was around long before Moore’s Law). Ergo: duh.

We have noted repeatedly the lack of first-hand engagement by CIOs and other senior personnel in social, the continuing functional divisions that mar alignment between technology and strategic decision-making at C-Suite level, and the fact that (per Gordon Moore and his terrifying law) every single day these factors grow faster in their impact on customer retention and broader competitive advantage.

I’ve also suggested – further out on a limb – that it may be time to ditch the office of the CIO. As it has evolved, it is a tech-focused office; and in most major corporations it reports through that of the CFO (more horrors). Information now lies at the core of every endeavor, and with every passing day will drive value to a greater extent. Nobody should get anywhere near the C-Suite, whatever labels are being used, without a drenching in social media usage. Not that they all need to be coders (in fact that can be a negative; this is far from a geeks’ charter), but unless they are au fait, they should go do something else. At the leadership/management interface that the C-Suite embodies, they are incompetent. Whatever their other accomplishments. Sorry.

So back to the customer. Unlike the, well, institutionalized consumerism of a generation and two ago (think Nader), consumers are now directly empowered; and they will drive the culture of those companies sufficiently agile to be able to survive this revolution. The more numbers like those infographicked below persist, the faster we can expect new brands to emerge that get it.

Listen up, investors.

My earlier piece: https://futureofbiz.org/2012/04/13/social-risk-seems-cios-think-social-is-beneath-them/

And https://futureofbiz.org/2012/06/12/more-on-the-social-cio/

Social Customer Service – The Next Competitive Battleground [INFOGRAPHIC] – AllTwitter.

More Risk: Resilience, Amazon’s Snafu, and the Cloud

Clouds over IL-RT50

Clouds (Photo credit: richardcox8592)

It’s good to know that most of Amazon’s backup power generators were working at the end of last week as some seriously bad weather hit the most internet-infested part of the planet, aka the DC area. But it is far from good enough. If we are to succeed in shifting data storage to the Cloud, with the vast benefits that many believe will flow, we need to have security-conscious grown-ups making resilience decisions. Else all we are doing is continuing the trend of porting our most valuable data assets into increasingly insecure locations.

Some months back I was invited to visit the Network Operating Center of one of our major corporations, located in Northern Virginia, and got a taste of what it takes to ensure resiliency. They have two separate power access points; an oil-fired generator that is constantly run in readiness; and a huge battery backup. And aside from redundant server capacity on site, they have two more complete operations in another state. Any one of them can be switched in seconds. They have never been down for more than a few.

Cloud suppliers need as a minimum to offer this kind of redundancy to ensure resilience, and to game “two-war” situations in which a major hack attack comes at the same time as a natural disaster (weather, earthquake) or the outbreak of an infectious disease that takes out many of their personnel. Seems to me that unless standards are that rigorous, neither commercial nor government agencies are going to entrust their data, and the Cloud will continue to be – as it is now – on the fringe of data storage and management.

The experience of the past few days raises other issues of resiliency. It is astonishing that the area where the most powerful people in the world reside can’t get its power utility to bury its cables (Europeans are routinely shocked to discover U.S. practice, which is defensible in scattered rural and semi-rural areas, but reeks of the Third World in suburban centers).

And all that before we start talking about the prospect of an EMP (electro-magnetic pulse), which could essentially reproduce the results of the weekend storm right up the East coast and take a year to fix. But I hear a movie is in the works about the Carrington Event, the mid-19th century EMP that melted telegraph wires. Perhaps that will wake up legislators, regulators, and utilities. And consumers.

Amazon Explains Cloud Computing Snafu – Digits – WSJ.

Risk, Risk, Risk: Competitive Advantage, Value, and Knowledge in C21

A recent HBR blog post from Ernst and Young helpfully summarizes research that shows the increased profitability over time of companies with “mature” risk management functions – engaged with strategic risk and integrated with strategic decision-making. It’s a good read with some solid data behind it.

Here’s another slant. Plainly, in times of general stasis, when technologies, markets, other factors, are changing little, risks are comparatively low. The risk function in major companies, and risk itself as a para-profession, developed in such times. The rapid uptick in disruptive change powered chiefly by the digital revolution (aka Moore’s Law) and (directly and indirectly) related factors such as globalization and the furious growth rates of some less-developed economies have changed everything. Risk has moved from the edges of the business (traditional trade-offs between insurance and self-insurance, data backups, leadership transition planning – the many aspects of prudent housekeeping) to the heart of the enterprise – and its competitive advantage.

The sorry tale that came to a head on Wall Street in 2008 has underlined this in rather crass terms. But the tale is being told in many companies, most recently the effective collapse of Kodak and now RIM – companies built largely around a single product and technology (Kodak) or merely product (RIM) that have suddenly gone the way of the dodo and the travel agent. In an oped for the Sydney Morning Post during my visit to Australia’s finance powerhouse AMP last year I described Groupthink as public enemy number 1. Groupthink, from a specifically risk perspective, is of course about the fundamental mis-rating of risk; a consensus lock-step in ignorance that by understating risk balloons it into 2008 proportions. (I shall paste the piece below.)

Point here: The Risk Management team is the C Suite. The Chief Risk officer is the CEO. Together with certain core functions, like hiring top executives and directing corporate strategy, the key risk function is not one that can be delegated. While this may not always have been true, as we climb the curve of disruptive and often destructive innovation in the second decade of C21 it is now not only true but urgent, vital to the flourishing – and survival – of every business. While finance and banking do not deliver all the best bad risk stories (we have noted RIM and Kodak; we could add BP and Susan Komen), the gearing is much higher and the disasters unravel more dramatically and with more strategic impact. So J.P. Morgan’s Jamie Dimon apologized for letting $2bn slip through inadvertence; a week or two later it now looks closer to $9bn. And Barclays, with other banks, have just been revealed fraudulently manipulating the LIBOR rate. On it goes.

The CEO is Chief Risk Officer. And as I have argued elsewhere (summary in the oped below) one essential risk management tool is the assembling and respecting of widely diverse opinions in every strategic conversation. It’s true of the board; of the executive team; of every context in which – essentially – ideas are put into the furnace to create value and competitive advantage. The further we ascend the Moore’s Law slope, the higher the risks, and the more diverse and respected such voices need to be.

How Mature is Your Risk Management? – Michael Herrinton – Harvard Business Review.

 

 

Groupthink – public enemy number 1 as we face the future

Posted on June 8, 2012

 

Groupthink hasn’t worked, it’s time to embrace the maverick

Giving credence to the outlier thinkers in our midst might have avoided things like the Wall Street crash.Giving credence to the outlier thinkers in our midst might have avoided things like the Wall Street crashPhoto: AP 

As the Arab spring continues to unravel into an Arab summer, the most important lesson is that hardly anyone knew it was coming. Much like the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Wall Street could it be that as much as conventional wisdom may be conventional it is not always reliably wise?

I recently hosted a conference in Washington on the future of nanotechnology. All kinds of experts were round the table talking tech and policy and business. Then one of them made a stunning statement. She was there on behalf of a big, mainstream environmentalist group. “I have never,” she stated, “been on such a diverse panel in Washington.”

There was a brief but palpable intake of air around the room. I thanked her for the compliment before adding that I was now more concerned for Washington than I was before.

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Whom do we invite round the table when the questions are big and the stakes high? It tends to be those in the centre; the mainstream thinker whose wisdom is regarded as conventional.

When will we ever learn? We are still paying for the lesson we learned from Wall Street in 2008.

Conventional wisdom can be dead wrong, even in the hands of the smartest people because they tend to agree with each other. People with way-out views are kept at arm’s-length.

Whatever the issue, if your views deviate too far from the mean, however articulate you may be, you are unlikely to get invited, funded or promoted.

We have learned a lot this past generation about the value of diversity in age, gender, and ethnicity but we have learned little about the enormous and growing value of diversity of opinion.

Of course, we do disagree about a lot of things. With friends, and with co-workers. But we live in communities of ideas that set boundaries around acceptable diversity of thinking, and make sure we keep out those who challenge our shared assumptions.

We don’t want to rehash old issues we regard as closed. We don’t want to give room to opinions we find deeply objectionable – or threatening. Most of us find it challenging to take forward our thinking when there is someone in the room always, always asking why?

So our natural tendency is to put unconscious faith in Groupthink, the tendency for everyone’s thinking to move in the same direction to the exclusion of any serious questioning.

People in management know all about this as a problem for work groups and other teams. But it is more insidious and far more dangerous on the grand scale.

What brought Wall Street down, and with it threatened the entire global order? The G-word. And on smaller scales: what led Monsanto into huge losses in the late 1990s and ensured that Europe rejected genetically-modified food? What led Detroit to near-oblivion as they insisted on producing 1950s-style autos into the 21st century? What about the power company TEPCO and the nuclear disaster that the entirely predictable tsunami sparked in Japan?

Knowledge is building very fast, disciplines are converging, globalisation is changing the ground-rules of everything. Change powered by Moore’s Law, the digitisation process and the revolution in communication is driving shifts in the technical, economic and social order that most of us strain to grasp. Yet the faster change takes place and the greater its disruptive, innovative power, the harder it will be to make good choices.

So who should be party to the conversation? This is where the outliers come in; people who are articulate and serious, but outside the mainstream assumptions that generally drive conversations. Experts tend to resist the participation of thosewith unorthodox opinions. It needs to become the norm for them to sit round the table in every discussion. All articulate voices round the table; all the time.

This approach is hardly new. The century before last, US poet, essayist and journalist Walt Whitman asked the question his own way. “Have you learned the lessons only of those who admired you, and were tender with you, and stood aside for you? Have you not learned great lessons from those who braced themselves against you, and disputed passage with you?” In the 21st century, great value lies at the extremities of opinion; and we need to harvest it as we move through change faster than we have ever known before.

First appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald, June 9, 2011.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/groupthink-hasnt-worked-its-time-to-embrace-the-maverick-20110609-1fuar.html#ixzz1xEjZeJnH

The Law of Digital Instability

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The collapse of RIM’s sales and postponement of its latest model, hard on the heels of what have seemed to be less than adroit management changes, underline a principle that seems obvious enough even though it is generally being ignored.

Digital-age companies, to the extent that their technologies are digitally powered, and to the extent that they essentially are built around one technology, are inherently unstable and liable to rapid collapse.

This  directly follows from the profoundly disruptive impact of Moore’s Law over relatively short periods of time.

But it is not widely noted. Which is why during IBM’s centennial year there was speculation about which great contemporary companies would be around in a century. Which is why the valuation of companies such as Facebook is so high – and that applies also to Google, for example, even though it has a much lower P/E ratio. Both Facebook and Google, despite their best best efforts (especially on Google’s part) are essentially one-tech digitally-driven companies – with, which is of course a separate point, one dominant business model and product.

It’s the Law of Digital Instability. The sooner we build it into our valuations, the better. And the sooner companies in its grip realize (as Google gives evidence of realizing) how risky is their position over time, the more likely they will find ways to broaden their product/tech/biz mode base.

IS FACEBOOK DOOMED? https://futureofbiz.org/2012/06/04/is-facebook-doomed/

RIM earnings: BlackBerry maker plans to slash 5,000 jobs, new devices delayed until 2013 | FP Tech Desk | Financial Post.

Why Blogs Matter; and the 3 Kinds of #Social

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I’m grateful to Ana Cristina Pratas (@AnaCristinaPrts) for drawing my attention to this brief post and slide-deck from the London School of Economics on the significance of blogging (including micro, aka Twitter) on the “development and democratization” of knowledge. Patrick Dunleavy’s main interest is the impact of blogging and informal online publication on academic discourse. But it is of course a development of much wider significance.

Blogs and micro-blogs are social platforms for knowledge, with many functions (In suspect we have only begun to discover them) including – as I have argued elsewhere – supremely, reciprocal knowledge curation. https://futureofbiz.org/future/why-twitter-matters/

There are a least 3 principles at work here:

1. Social in relation to other people.

2. Social in relation to knowledge.

3. Social in relation to institutions.

And in the Twitter/blog nexus they all three intersect and interact.

Much to mull here in Dunleavy’s presentation, and to apply even more broadly than he does.

The Republic of Blogs: A new phase in the development and democratization of knowledge

Facebook, Diversity, and Leadership in the C21 Corporation

In her latest Reuters column, Lucy Marcus (@lucymarcus) smart, suave authority on board governance, welcomes Sheryl Sandberg’s appointment to the Facebook board – as the first woman, and a second executive voice from inside the corporation. She also notes, though, that since Zuckerberg controls more than half the stock, when push comes to shove he will get his way.

The Facebook story will no doubt be used for case studies of several kinds as we move ahead, whether or not it justifies its vast valuation and survives into the next decade as the mainspring of social networking (both propositions, as I have argued before, to my mind highly doubtful).

4 key issues are raised here that go much wider.

1. It’s unfortunate that the term “diversity” has come to be associated with the need for women to be better represented in traditionally male preserves, and other ethnicities in traditionally white. There are indeed issues of equity to be addressed. But the core need for “diversity” on boards and in leadership more generally has less to do with gender and pigmentation and everything to do with perspective. Monochrome and monogendered bodies are far less suited to governance. And while that has always been true, at a time of rapid, exponential, change, it is risible that anyone could suggest anything other. Radical diversity of perspective is crucial to managing increasingly rapid change.

2. As Lucy Marcus notes, Facebook has shown itself out of step with the slow “spring” in corporate governance – both in board diversity and also, strikingly, in the old-style control that is built into Zuckerberg’s position. That is (in my words) we have a company presented as the key to the new social economy being governed like a Victorian family business. I am not without deep admiration for Zuckerberg’s creativity and vision; but it is his plain failure to understand this point that makes me most uneasy about the company’s capacity to weather the coming years. Such a concern is constantly reinforced by the plain bad decision-making that keeps flowing from the top. Latest: the ridiculous email switch this week – pitching 900 million people into unwanted email accounts.

3. What 21st century corporations need above all, and especially those driven by digital technologies and congruent social attitudes in constant flux, is an agile capacity for decision-making and responsiveness that will come only from deep and open-textured conversation at their heart – and candid social engagement across the organizational boundary. That is, contrarians need to be appointed to boards, and social engagement to reach far higher than the joke of a privacy referendum recently triggered in the aforementioned Facebook. Both contrarians inside and an open boundary with customers, prospects, and the wider culture, will prove worth more than their weight in gold; and prove key drivers of competitive advantage. Facebook has displayed interest in neither.

4. The core question is a model of leadership, personal and shared, for Century 21. The old-tyme Fordist models worked well back in the day – the Great Leader, the supportive and largely consensus-minded board of buddies, the trusting stakeholders/market. In all respects this situation is now history. Except that so many of our long-established companies are still trying to make it work. And leading allegedly new-economy companies such as Facebook, while they are driven by constantly exploding digital technologies, are striving to replicate a model that cannot thrive in the new context of constant, innovative disruption – while social is eroding the organizational boundary and shaping the possibilities faced by the corporation.

I see Microsoft as the last of the behemoth Fordist survivals. The titans of a century ago, Ford and Carnegie, would have recognized it, admired its founder, and generally resonated with his post-leadership generosity. Apple has straddled the models, driven by genius, and blessed so far by much good luck. Whether our focus is governance, leadership, social media, or social responsibility (to which Apple has slowly awakened through its sign-on to Fair Labor), the C21 company will look nothing like the grand successes of C20. Among the slew of first-generation digital behemoths (we can throw Google into the mix here), Henry Ford would just have been too much at home to give me confidence they can evolve rapidly enough to flourish rather than simply (if they do) survive.

And it’s notable that Rupert Murdoch, a C20 titan if ever there was one, discovered Twitter at the turn of the year and is engaging frequently and personally (you can tell; he can’t type well and keeps saying things that make his PR people cringe). Strikes me he may have it in him to adapt faster than Zuck. Sorry.

 

Is Facebook Doomed? https://futureofbiz.org/2012/06/04/is-facebook-doomed/

Facebook’s board needs more than Sheryl Sandberg | Lucy P. Marcus.