So as the Facebook IPO controversy settles, what’s next?
I’ve written from time to time on the importance of Twitter and what’s likely to happen to the likes of Facebook (scroll for links). But what’s the bigger picture? Because the picture is really big.
I’m assuming the tech keeps bubbling away, but the relation between technology, usage, markets, cultural significance, and all the other components of our human community is indirect and highly complex. On the tech front, AIs will keep getting better, so (for example) voice recognition and instant translation will be built into everything. Devices will get more portable and also more versatile. But what will really be happening?
More to follow as I spin out each of these Five.
Here are Five Futures I see just over the horizon. They need to be built into every one of our scenarios.
1. Social will be universal. Every adult and older child, including the very poor, will possess smart mobile devices. Social will encompass the human race.
2. Social will be a utility. Like landline telephony and the postal service, mobile will demand social inter-operability. Baseline social will be gardens with distinctive features but without walls.
3. Social will be personal. That is, it will be as private, confidential, or open, as we as individuals choose it to be, and easily, controllably so. No more book-length “privacy” statements; the simplicity and elegance of Apple design, as it were, will shape the personal functionality of social. One implication: traditional advertising models will remain on the margins, though innovative ones such as branded content will grow in impact.
4. Social will reshape every institution. All of our institutions – corporate, government, non-profit – have been shaped from the top down and the inside out. Social has already laid explosives under this modeling. From Gov. 2.0 to Biz 2.0 we have begun to see radical shifts in our institutions driven by a new accessibility and responsiveness – and requiring far more transparency and integrity. But this has only just begun.
5. Social will drive reciprocally curated knowledge networks. The exponential growth of data and knowledge will be managed through engines of social curation which will in turn to be driven by an interplay between expert and crowd sourcing.